Saturday, 6 July 2024

Fixing the property market will be hugely beneficial to the overall economy. With 16 housing ministers since 2010, the outgoing government hasn’t taken the property industry and its impact on the wider market seriously enough. Only time will tell whether the new government will do anything radical to reverse the current housing crisis.”

 UK house prices remained flat in June, with the average price of a residential property dipping by 0.2% monthly, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index. The annual house price growth rate was unchanged at +1.6%. The typical UK home now costs £288,455, down from £288,931 in May.


Northern Ireland saw the strongest property price growth in the UK, rising by 4% annually to £192,457. In England, the North West had the steepest house price inflation at +3.8%, now at £231,351. Scotland's house prices increased by +1.6% to £204,663, while Wales grew by +2.7% to £220,197.


Eastern England was the only UK region to register a decline, with prices down -0.9% to £328,747. London remains the most expensive, averaging £536,306, up +0.9% from last year.


Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, noted that UK house prices stayed relatively flat for the third month in June, reflecting a subdued market. She highlighted that mortgage affordability remains the biggest challenge but expects gradual easing through lower interest rates and rising incomes.


Industry reactions:

- Amy Reynolds (Antony Roberts): Falling prices are a correction from 2021 highs. Higher borrowing costs make homeownership challenging, and potential increased capital gains tax may lead to more ex-rental properties entering the market.

- Myles Moloney (Chase Buchanan): June’s market remained positive, driven by buyers with larger equity, though first-time buyers are cautious due to political uncertainties.

- Nicky Stevenson (Fine & Country): Despite elevated interest rates and political uncertainty, the property market is expected to remain buoyant, with improved consumer confidence and reduced time to sell properties.

- Jeremy Leaf: The election added to market nervousness, but resilient activity is expected to continue.

- Richard Vickery (Fulfords): June sales were subdued, but July looks promising post-election.

- Iain McKenzie (The Guild of Property Professionals): Despite high interest rates and election run-up, the market has been resilient. Confidence is returning, supported by sustained demand and potential interest rate cuts.

- Sharon Donaldson (Countrywide Scotland): The Scottish market remains resilient, driven by significant demand and strong competition, particularly for family homes.



Friday, 14 June 2024

Planning permissions have plummeted to their lowest level since 2005 4.3 million homes short !


Planning permissions have plummeted to their lowest level since 2005, with Labour councils among the most frequent rejecters. The Department for Levelling Up, Housing & Communities (DLUHC) reported a 10.4% decrease in approved applications in England between January and March compared to the same period last year. Over the past 12 months, seven of the top ten councils for rejecting planning permissions were Labour-controlled.

 

In the first quarter of this year, only 67,380 applications were approved by local authorities, down from 75,173 last year. Over the past three years, planning requests have dropped by a third due to rising interest rates and construction costs. Despite his pledge to build 1.5 million new homes, Sir Keir Starmer’s promise was outstripped by the Conservative manifesto's goal of 1.6 million homes over five years.

 

Rishi Sunak acknowledged this week that homeownership has become more challenging under Conservative governance. Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner called this admission a "damning indictment of 14 years of housing failure." The number of approved planning applications for major residential projects, those creating 10 or more homes, hit a decade low in the 2023/24 financial year, with only 3,721 granted in England.

 

Ant Breach from the Centre for Cities indicated that the UK's poor record on house building might worsen without planning reform. He advocated for a rules-based system, like those in other G7 countries, to reduce uncertainty in house building.

 

In Barking and Dagenham, only 61% of planning applications were approved in 2023/24, the lowest rate in England. Across the country, 24 councils, mostly in London, rejected at least a quarter of all applications. In contrast, Liberal Democrat-run Gosport council approved 99% of requests last year.

 

The Labour manifesto promises to use intervention powers to override councils blocking house building. Anna Clarke from The Housing Forum supported this move as necessary despite its potential unpopularity.

 

The Conservative plan includes abolishing EU "nutrient neutrality" rules, introducing a one-off environmental impact mitigation fee for developers, fast-tracking brownfield site development, and requiring councils to allocate land for small, local builders.

 

The Centre for Cities found that the UK housing market lacks 4.3 million homes compared to European counterparts, leading to an average house price of £302,000 in England by the end of 2023, which is 8.3 times the median annual wage—double the affordability ratio of 20 years ago.

Tuesday, 11 June 2024

My Building manifesto

 My Building manifesto @Brickies !!!! now listen here !! 

1. Fluid Planning System

  • Digital Planning Portal: Create a centralized digital platform for planning applications, accessible to both developers and local authorities. This portal should streamline the submission process, automate routine tasks, and provide real-time updates on application status.
  • Predictive Analytics: Utilise AI and data analytics to forecast demand for housing and infrastructure, helping local authorities make informed decisions on planning permissions and land allocations.
  • Community Engagement: Implement digital tools for community engagement, such as interactive mapping and online forums, to facilitate public input and increase transparency in the planning process.

2. Skills Crisis Solution

  • National Skills Strategy: Develop a comprehensive national strategy to address the skills shortage in the construction industry. This should include initiatives to attract young people to the sector, upskill existing workers, and promote diversity and inclusion.
  • Partnerships with Educational Institutions: Forge partnerships with universities, colleges, and vocational training centers to tailor education and training programs to the needs of the construction industry. Offer incentives for students pursuing careers in construction-related fields.
  • Apprenticeship Schemes: Expand apprenticeship schemes in collaboration with industry stakeholders, providing financial incentives for companies to take on apprentices and offering flexible training pathways.

3. Stamp Duty Cut and Help to Buy Scheme

  • Targeted Support: Evaluate the effectiveness of the stamp duty cut and NEW Help to Buy scheme to ensure they are reaching their intended beneficiaries. Consider targeted adjustments or expansions based on market conditions and demographic needs.
  • Affordability Measures: Supplement stamp duty cuts and Help to Buy schemes with additional measures to address housing affordability, such as rent-to-own schemes, shared ownership programs, and affordable housing quotas for new developments.

4. Tax Cuts for Landlords Selling to Tenants

  • Incentivise Sale-to-Tenant Transactions: Expand tax incentives for landlords who sell properties to their tenants, encouraging homeownership and tenant stability. Consider additional support, such as low-interest loans or grants, to facilitate these transactions.
  • Tenant Protections: Implement policies to protect tenants' rights and improve rental conditions, including rent controls, longer tenancy agreements, and measures to combat discrimination and unfair eviction practices.

5. BNG and Nutrient Neutrality Relaxation

  • Review Regulations: Conduct a comprehensive review of regulations related to BNG (Biodiversity Net Gain) and nutrient neutrality to identify opportunities for relaxation without compromising environmental sustainability.
  • Flexible Compliance Options: Introduce flexible compliance options for developers, such as off-site mitigation, habitat restoration credits, or contributions to conservation funds, to meet BNG and nutrient neutrality requirements.
  • Innovation and Technology: Encourage the adoption of innovative technologies and best practices in ecological restoration and nutrient management to achieve environmental goals more efficiently and cost-effectively.

Conclusion

By addressing these key areas comprehensively, the government can create a more conducive environment for house builders and promote sustainable development in the UK. This holistic approach should balance the need for regulatory oversight with measures to stimulate growth, innovation, and social equity in the housing sector. Ongoing monitoring and evaluation will be crucial to ensure the effectiveness and fairness of these policies.

 

Wednesday, 22 May 2024

Inflation down ! What will happen to interest rates now ? Will history repeat itself?

 Lower inflation rates in the UK can have significant implications for the economy, including the housing market. Here's my thoughts and


breakdown of the potential impacts:


### Lower Inflation Rates and the Economy


1. **Interest Rates**: Lower inflation often leads to lower interest rates. The Bank of England might reduce interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment, making mortgages cheaper for potential homebuyers.


2. **Consumer Confidence**: Lower inflation can boost consumer confidence as the cost of living stabilizes. This can lead to increased spending and investment, including in the housing market.


3. **Investment**: With lower inflation, investors may feel more confident about the economic outlook, potentially increasing investment in housing and other sectors.


### Housing Market Impact


1. **Housing Demand**: 

   - **First-Time Buyers**: Lower mortgage rates can make buying a home more affordable for first-time buyers, increasing demand.

   - **General Demand**: Lower interest rates and higher consumer confidence can boost overall demand for housing.


2. **House Prices**: Increased demand can lead to higher house prices, particularly if supply remains constrained.


3. **Building Activity**:

   - **Increased Construction**: With improved economic conditions and potentially lower borrowing costs, developers might be more inclined to initiate new housing projects.

   - **Supply Constraints**: If the recent lack of house building persists, there could be a supply shortage, further driving up prices as demand increases.


### Long-Term Effects


1. **Supply-Demand Balance**: If the supply of new homes doesn't keep pace with demand, prices will continue to rise, making it difficult for first-time buyers despite lower interest rates.


2. **Affordability Issues**: Persistent supply shortages can exacerbate affordability issues, particularly in high-demand areas.


3. **Government Policies**: Government interventions, such as incentives for first-time buyers or policies to boost construction, can also significantly impact the market.


### Recent Lack of House Building


1. **Supply Shortage**: A continued lack of new house building exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, driving up prices and rents.


2. **Market Pressure**: Limited housing supply puts pressure on the existing stock, which can lead to higher competition for homes and increased prices.


3. **Economic Strain**: The strain on housing can affect broader economic stability, influencing migration patterns, labor markets, and regional economic development.


### Conclusion


Lower inflation rates can positively influence the housing market by making borrowing cheaper and boosting consumer confidence. However, the recent lack of house building presents a significant challenge. If supply does not increase to meet demand, house prices will continue to rise, potentially making it difficult for first-time buyers and exacerbating affordability issues. Government policies and incentives will play a crucial role in addressing these challenges and ensuring a balanced and accessible housing market.

Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Business Failure down but interest rates stay the same ?

 The decline in the number of business failures, particularly in the construction industry, to a two-year low in April signifies a positive trend amidst the broader economic recovery. With only 13 construction firms facing administrations, down from 29 in March, it suggests a notable improvement in the sector's resilience. This reduction in business failures can be attributed, in part, to easing inflationary pressures, which likely alleviated some of the cost burdens on businesses.


The significance of this decline becomes more pronounced when considering that it marks the lowest level of construction industry administrations since May 2022, when only 11 construction firms faced similar challenges. This indicates a gradual but tangible improvement in the stability and sustainability of construction businesses, which are often sensitive to fluctuations in economic conditions.


Such a trend is not only encouraging for the construction sector but also for the broader economy, as the construction industry plays a crucial role in driving economic activity and employment. A reduction in business failures suggests increased confidence among construction firms, potentially leading to greater investment, hiring, and overall economic expansion.


However, while this decline in business failures is a positive sign, it's essential to continue monitoring economic indicators to ensure sustained recovery and growth across all sectors. Factors such as interest rates, consumer spending, and global economic conditions can still influence the trajectory of businesses in the construction industry and the economy as a whole.


Saturday, 4 May 2024

Permitted Development Rights ? What is it ?


As we enter the final months of the government’s tenure, the pressure is on to make each department appear as shiny as possible ahead of the election. Those responsible for housing are counting on a further expansion of existing permitted development rights (PDRs).

The world of PDRs is a little complex

There are two main types of PDR with the first relating to the extension of one’s own home. For example, subject to certain size restrictions, you have a PDR to put an extension on the back of your house without asking the council for permission or even telling your neighbours. The second type relates to the change of use of existing commercial buildings, in particular into residential use, and it’s this type that the government hopes tweaking will result in more homes being built.

According to countryside charity CPRE, some 1.2 million new homes could be built using the country’s current stock of unused commercial buildings. The government has stated that we need to build 300,000 new homes every year, but in recent years, that target hasn’t come close to being met. Wholesale planning changes that would have many voters worrying about a new affordable housing estate being built at the bottom of their gardens is a little too turkeys-voting-for-Christmas. However, using permitted development rights to recycle existing commercial buildings is far more palatable to the electorate and allows the government to be seen to be addressing the housing crisis.

PDRs have been around for decades, but they came into their own in 2015 when the government allowed developers to convert office buildings into residential use. Since then, the number of permitted development rights has increased significantly. You can now also convert gyms, doctor’s surgeries, light industrial units, banks, cafes, and restaurants into residential, as well as add new storeys to existing blocks of flats.

All buildings have what’s known as a use class, and you would normally need to apply for planning permission to change a building’s use class (e.g. to turn an office building into a block of flats). Because applying for planning permission can be slow and tortuous, the government decided to create a streamlined process whereby the change of use was automatically approved, subject to some basic checks. Called ‘prior approval’, developers can make a PDR application for a change of use, and the council would have up to eight weeks to assess it against a short list of fundamental criteria. If they didn’t respond in that time, permission was automatically granted, making things a lot quicker and far less risky for developers.

What exactly is being proposed? 

The government has put forward several changes to the current PDR arrangements to try to woo voters. On the home front, it’s looking to let homeowners build wider and taller extensions, including wraparounds, loft conversions and kitchen extensions, all without planning permission. They also plan to scrap rules that dictate a home and any extension cannot make up more than 50% of the land surrounding it, as well as allowing homeowners to convert as much loft space as they like, again without needing permission. There’s been a fair amount of doom-mongering since the announcement, with certain sections of the media predicting pitched battles between neighbours. While there will be instances of neighbourly objections, I think most people will see this as a sensible proposal. The cost of moving home for many is prohibitive and, of course, is currently subject to stamp duty. Having the option to substantially extend one’s current home is, therefore, an attractive proposition for many people.

On the commercial conversion side of PDRs, the government is also looking to make some changes. Many commercial properties currently need to be vacant for three months before PDRs can apply, and the government is proposing to remove this restriction. This is excellent news for developers because it means they can start developing more quickly and with greater certainty. It also means they can secure the finance they need to acquire the property they’re about to convert. The government is also proposing to lift the 1,500m2 maximum size restriction of commercial properties that can be converted under one of the most significant PDRs.

Hold the champagne 

So, while all of these proposed changes sound positive, on their own, they won’t be a magic wand that fixes the housing crisis. Building 1.2million new homes from unused brownfield land would give us the equivalent of four years’ new housing, and we wouldn’t need to touch the green belt in order to do it. But the question is, who will be doing all this development? And that’s where we hit a snag, because brownfield projects are not a good fit for the major housebuilders.

If we look at the Persimmons, Barratts, and Taylor Wimpeys of this world, they have a simple, cookie-cutter model which involves rolling out standard house designs on empty building plots. Give them a plot of land anywhere in the country, and they can build some houses from their existing range of designs, and they’ll make a tidy multi-million pound profit. But give them an unused commercial building, and the model doesn’t work. They could, of course, demolish it and start again, but that’s considerably more expensive than building on virgin land. If they were to convert what’s already there, they’d have to employ architects to create a one-off design for each building. They’d also have to retrain their workforce since converting an existing building requires a different skill set than building a standard design on a vacant plot. Finally, most of these sites wouldn’t make them enough profit – they’re simply not big enough.

Who will transform unused commercial property?

If the scale housebuilders are out of the frame, who is best placed to convert these buildings? The answer lies with the much smaller operators, known as small-scale developers. These range from individuals like you or me to relatively small SME enterprises. Putting some flats above an unused shop can net you a six-figure profit in relatively short timescales. It’s not very exciting to the likes of Persimmon, but it’s highly attractive to an individual landlord, investor, or entrepreneur – experienced or otherwise. The government has made life increasingly difficult for property investors (particularly regarding buy-to-let) over the last decade, but it now needs to encourage new small-scale developers to enter the market. SME developers used to account for 30% of new housebuilding, but today that figure has dropped to just 12%.

Another critical challenge 

The local planning authorities who must give prior approval to PDR applications before works can begin, are massively under-resourced, often lacking in experience (due to many senior planners departing) and are not predisposed to like PDRs, which they often see as undermining their authority. As a result, councils can still make it difficult for prior approval to be granted, despite the government’s intention of making PDRs a streamlined and unbureaucratic process. It’s imperative that the government gets planning authorities on side and starts reinvesting in this vital area.

The proposed PDR changes will undoubtedly create more opportunities to unlock more housing by recycling and improving our existing building stock – which has to be a good thing. But it will only happen if the government also encourages new small-scale developers to come to the party and once again account for a larger share of the market. And the government also needs to get local planning authorities on side so that they view PDRs as an opportunity to solve the housing crisis in their area, rather than something that undermines their authority.


Saturday, 24 February 2024

What 99% mortgages could mean for first-time buyers... and the housing market

 Exploring the Impact of 99% Mortgages on First-Time Buyers and the Housing Market


Reportedly, Jeremy Hunt is crafting plans to enable first-time buyers to enter the property market with only a 1% deposit, potentially to be unveiled in the March 6 Budget by the Chancellor. This initiative, akin to the existing Mortgage Guarantee Scheme but covering 99% of a home's value, aims to assist those facing difficulties accumulating enough savings to purchase a home.


While this policy could be advantageous for some first-time buyers by reducing the deposit requirement, critics express concerns about potential repercussions. They argue that it might inflate house prices and pose challenges for buyers managing the monthly repayments, especially amid relatively high interest rates.


The proposed scheme lacks detailed information, but in principle, it could lower the barrier to homeownership for aspiring buyers. For instance, purchasing a £300,000 property with a 5% deposit currently demands savings of £15,000, while under the new scheme, this could decrease to as little as £3,000, alongside additional expenses like solicitor fees and surveys.


Mark Harris, CEO of SPF Private Clients, views any initiative aiding first-time buyers positively, emphasizing its significance for market functionality. However, critics caution against the risks of negative equity if property prices decline, potentially trapping borrowers in financially precarious situations.


Peter Stimson, from MPowered Mortgages, critiques the move as irresponsible, arguing that it may exacerbate financial risks for buyers and conflict with the government's encouragement of prudent financial behavior.


In summary, while the 99% mortgage proposal may offer a pathway to homeownership for some, its implementation warrants careful consideration to mitigate potential downsides and safeguard buyers' financial stability.