Planning Permission is the solution to the housing crisis

 BELIEVING  WE HAVE CONCRETED OVER OUR ISLAND GETS US NOWHERE Homes, excluding gardens take up 1.3%of land. (Report from the The Times on Sunday Martina Lees)

How much of this green and pleasant land has been concreted over,

do you reckon? A quarter? A third? On average the public thinks almost half (47.1 per cent) of England is developed.

This finding, from an Ipsos survey, stands out for just how far perception exceeds reality.

Only 8.7 per cent of the country is developed - that is, covered in permanent structures such as buildings, roads, railways or pavements.

Government Ordnance

Survey data shows homes, excluding gardens, take up just 1.3 per cent of land. The average (mean) guess for the percentage of land taken up by homes? Thirty times as much, at 38.9 per cent.

This gross overestimation in the minds of voters is the backdrop to the political debate on homebuilding. It goes some way to explaining why our leaders shy away from the planning reforms we really need. Yes, there have been plenty of planning headlines to draw a dividing line ahead of the next election. Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, promises (with caveats) to build on the green belt, which Rishi Sunak vows to protect.

Likewise the Labour leader will reinstate the mandatory housing targets that the prime minister scrapped.

None of these measures addresses the root cause of our housing shortage, though.

Britain's planning system is a lottery where you have no certainty where you can build.

Every decision is made on a case-by-case basis, weighing up complex and contradictory policies. By contrast, most developed countries have rules-based systems. If you stick to the rules you know you can build.

The planning lottery is why my son, seven, and daughter, nine, don't have bedrooms.

We live in a dilapidated one-bedroom bungalow that we want to replace with a modest zero-carbon family home that our neighbours support.

Having spent £40,000 on planning experts we still do. not have permission to build.

Yet the public remains largely unaware of where the problem lies. In research for The Economist, Ipsos surveyed more than 2,000 adults, both renters and homeowners. A majority (55 per cent) say housing is unaffordable for "people like me". Many link affordability to supply: Britons are more than twice as likely to agree (50 per cent) than disagree (20 per cent) that housing will not become more affordable unless we build more homes every year. 

Yet they do not cite the planning system as the main reason for undersupply.

It comes fourth on the list of perceived reasons, after a lack of councils building homes, low interest from politicians and local opposition.

No surprise, then, that politicians won't tackle fundamental reform to bring planning certainty. When the Tories tried under Boris Johnson, it cost them a by-election and they have back-pedalled ever since.

Despite the headlines,

Labour has no appetite for "being brave" on root-and-branch planning reform either, as one insider told me. Their priority is to oil the

existing system and bring stability to reinvigorate housebuilding.

If the public doesn't see planning as broken, fixing it won't win votes.

But fixing the planning system is what is required to end the housing shortage long term. We need certainty on what and where we can build.

It is time to be brave, starting with an adult conversation on why the countryside is far from concreted over. 

"Gove says he would ‘like to see’ 30,000 new social rented homes per year" But in reality the UK needs 90000 !!

 

Gove says he would ‘like to see’ 30,000 new social rented homes per year

NEWS19.07.236.30 PMBY GRAINNE CUFFE

Housing secretary Michael Gove has pledged to build 30,000 new social homes per year to tackle the housing crisis.

In an interview with Daniel Hewitt, investigations correspondent at ITV News, Mr Gove said that within the government’s £11.5bn Affordable Homes Programme, he has “specifically insisted that we renegotiated and that we have more money being spent explicitly for homes for social rent”.

He said it is “indefensible” that working people are having to live in vans, caravans and hostels. 

This marks the first time Mr Gove has given a figure for the number of social homes he wants to build. 

The number of new social rent homes being built has fallen from 39,562 a year in 2010 to 7,644 in 2021-22 – the same year that 24,932 were sold under the Right to Buy and 2,757 were demolished.

When launching its inquiry into the financial sustainability of the social housing sector, Clive Betts, chair the Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Committee, said there is “compelling evidence that England needs at least 90,000 net additional social rented homes a year and it is time for the government to invest”. 

Mr Gove said: “Tens of thousands of new homes for social rent will be built as a direct result of the way we have reprofiled that spending.

“I would like to see 30,000 new social homes being built at least every year. 

“We need to step up. We have one more year until we have general election and we need to see a significant increase in the run-up to the election, and I want to see numbers increase after that.”

The housing secretary was speaking to Mr Hewitt, one of the journalists behind ITV’s major investigation into the state of social housing across England, ahead of the Social Housing (Regulation) Bill being given Royal Assent.

The bill is expected to become law as early as Thursday and comes two-and-half-years after the ITV investigation launched and more than six years after its catalyst, the Grenfell Tower fire, claimed 72 lives. 

Councils and housing associations will be subject to more stringent and proactive consumer regulation, as well as inspections, alongside being obliged to report new tenant satisfaction measures to the Regulator of Social Housing. 

The bill includes a clause known as Awaab’s law, named after two-year-old Awaab Ishak who died from prolonged exposure to mould in a Rochdale Boroughwide Housing flat. The clause will require landlords to respond to and investigate repairs within certain timescales, which are yet to be set. 

Mr Gove said he thinks the bill will “make a big difference because we are putting those who are responsible for looking after tenants in social housing on notice”.

He stated that the government takes responsibility for the poor housing conditions uncovered by ITV. 

“It is a shared responsibility, but I don’t think we can shuffle off responsibility for central government’s role, as well. 

“We do need to make sure funding gets to the frontline and make sure there is an effective approach to regulation,” he added. 

Last week, The Guardian revealed that the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities had handed back hundreds of millions of pounds budgeted for 2022-23.

An analysis by the Chartered Institute of Housing estimated that 5,000 new affordable homes could have been funded from part of the £1.9bn underspend reported by the housing department.

Mr Gove said the money would be “reprofiled into future years” and insisted that “100%” the department would get that money back from the Treasury. 

He added: “Because of the inflationary environment at the moment, there are constraints to our ability, on anyone’s ability, to build at the moment.

“What we need to make sure is that we have a sustainable, long-term housing plan for housing, and that money will be spent in future years.”

It's started! UK house prices collapse 12.5% with 'far worse' to come

By Richard Jeffries  GB News 

Published: 15/07/2023 - 17:51 Updated: 15/07/2023 - 18:06

House prices in Britain have already fallen by 12.5% in real terms PA

By Richard Jeffries 

Published: 15/07/2023 - 17:51 Updated: 15/07/2023 - 18:06

Real-terms drop could be even worse than 2008, warns leading expert

House prices in the UK have already dropped by 12.5 per cent in real-terms with a lot more to come, a leading property expert has warned.

The housing market is being hit by surging mortgage costs, with average two-year fixes jumping to a 15-year high of 6.7% as interest rates keep rising to combat stubbornly high inflation.

Halifax recently said house prices fell at their fastest annual rate in 12 years last month, down 2.6% at £285,932.

And now Rob Dix from the Property Hub has warned that, when you take inflation into account, a major crash He said: "Most people have missed it but we're actually already into one of the most significant price drops in decades.

"From 2020 house prices went almost vertical, growing 20 per cent or more a year.

"What goes up quickly tends to come down quickly too, but we've only seen a total fall in nominal house prices of 4-5% so far.

"That's why it looks like this is just the start and there's another 10 or 15% to come - or maybe even more given we were already at all-time highs going into 2020.

"I'm not saying there aren't further falls to come, there almost certainly are. But house prices have actually already fallen by far more than 5%. That's because we're measuring it with the wrong tool "

The bestselling author added: "The pound itself is falling in value, because of inflation.

"When the price of everything - food, fuel, house prices - has gone up and isn't coming back down, that's the same as saying the value of the pound has fallen.

"If we correct for this and hold the value of the pound constant - by looking at things in real-terms - we see a very different picture.

"In real-terms, property prices in the UK have already fallen by 12.5%, which means prices are actually back to where they were in 2014.

"People pay their mortgages with their salaries and investors are looking at the returns they make based on rents.

"So if wages, rents and everything else are higher - because of the pound losing value - and property prices are staying the same, they're actually falling.

The construction industry is forecast for a strong bounce back next year !

The construction industry is forecast for a strong bounce back next year according to Glenigan's as new opportunities appear in warehousing & logistics, office, and retail refurbishment, fit out, and the repurposing of redundant commercial premises.

New opportunities are set to emerge over the next three years as the construction industry recovers from the economic slowdown and structural changes that are undermining current workload.

The underlying value of construction starts (projects with a construction value of less than £100 million) are expected to improve in the coming months, but 2023 will still be down by 18% compared to the previous year according to Glenigan’s latest construction industry forecasts.

Glenigan’s economics director Allan Wilén comments: “Renewed construction growth is forecast for 2024 and 2025 as a strengthening UK economy lifts consumer and business confidence. Improved household spending and consumer confidence are expected to feed through to increased activity in consumer-related areas.

“There will be a rise in office refurbishment work as premises are remodelled to accommodate a shift in post-pandemic working practices, while an increased growth in online retailing will provide a catalyst for renewed investment in logistics facilities from 2024.”

Near term opportunities

In the near-term, public-sector investment will provide the greater opportunities as workload in consumer-related areas such as private housing, retail, and hotel & leisure are constrained by the current high rate of inflation, higher taxes, and rising mortgage costs.

This contraction will be partly offset by an estimated £4.9 billion underspend by government departments during the last financial year. This underspend is expected to fuel a rise in government investment this year according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Mr Wilén adds: “Public sector construction is expected to be a bright spot during 2023 as government departmental capital programmes are boosted by the rolling forward of 2022/23 underspend into the current financial year.”

“Increased government funding is expected to drive the education, community & amenity and health sectors, although departmental budgets are likely to be reviewed post-election, potentially slowing sector activity during 2025.”

Public sector pipeline

The education sector will experience the highest rate of growth this year with an 18% increase in the value of underlying starts. The Department of Education’s capital funding is set to grow by 19% during the current financial year to help meet a commitment to rebuild 500 schools over the next decade.

Funding of £456m was recently approved for refurbishment works to 859 academies, sixth-form colleges and voluntary aided schools through the 2023/24 Condition Improvement Fund (Project ID: 23164992).

Growth in the health and community & amenity sectors is expected to materialise next year with increases in underlying starts of 13% and 17% respectively.

Mr Wilén adds: “NHS investment is a high political priority and a 3.8% per annum real-term growth rate in NHS capital funding is set to support a rise in starts.”

The Department of Health’s £20bn New Hospital Programme was relaunched recently (Project ID: 19342017). Dubbed Hospital 2.0, the programme includes a swathe of major schemes such as the £1.7 billion redevelopment of Paddington Hospital, which could start in 2024 according to Glenigan’s construction market research (Project ID: 20152714).

Positioned for growth

From 2024, the private sector is expected to start generating more opportunities. The underlying value of starts in the industrial sector are forecast by Glenigan to boom by 20% next year, fuelled by growth in the warehousing & logistics sub-sector.

Mr Wilén comments: “Although online retailers have lost some of the market share gained during the pandemic, as consumers have returned to high streets and retail parks, the longer-term shift towards online retailing is expected to support continued demand for more logistics space.”

Major warehousing & logistics schemes identified in the construction pipeline by Glenigan’s industry analysis include a £500m railhead and logistics hub at Ravenscraig in Scotland (Project ID: 20477628) and the £410 million Humber International Enterprise Park in Hull (Project ID: 18299084).

Underlying starts in the office sector are forecast to leap 20%, boosted by refurbishment and fit out work. The repurposing of redundant premises, such as a proposed £200m redevelopment of the St Enoch shopping centre in Glasgow into a mixed-use development of retail, flats, and office (Project ID: 21414454), will also provide openings.

Planning change

With house prices sagging, workload in the residential sector is suffering but changes to the planning regime, while initially hitting volume housebuilders, may also produce an upside in other areas.

Mr Wilén explains: “Changes to the planning regime threaten to reduce the supply of development land for the residential homeownership sector over the medium term, especially outside urban areas, and adversely impacting the delivery of low-rise family housing.

“However, reform of leasehold property regulations together with post-Grenfell safety regulations may improve purchasers' enthusiasm for new apartments. This may increase competition with build-to-rent developers for high-rise city centre sites.”

Glenigan’s construction industry research has identified a swathe of major build-to-rent developments in the early stages of the planning pipeline which are set to boost workload in the months and years ahead.

These proposals include a £330m proposal for 929 units at Goldsworth Road in Woking (Project ID: 16159821) and a £500m plan from Gatehouse Bank and TPG Capital to build 2,500 two, three and four-bedroom houses across a number of locations in England (Project ID: 21367902).

Growth in build-to-rent and improved consumer confidence are also expected to help push overall private housing starts back up again, with a rise of 7% next year and 8% in 2025.

Regional shift

Regionally, construction markets in the northern half of England are forecast to outperform London and southern England up to 2025, which reflects a shift in government funding and policy towards ‘levelling up’.

The government is pumping £4bn into the Levelling Up Fund (Project ID: 20469842) and a total of £2.3 billion was shared amongst schemes in the second round alone (Project ID: 23018031).

Applicants for grants in the £1 billion third round have been identified and will start to benefit from next year (Project ID: 23085448).

Making plans

Structural changes are creating new opportunities in different sectors and regions to boost the industry as the recovery grows.

Mr Wilén concludes: “Firms will need to target these new and shifting opportunities, ensuring that they have the expertise and resources to increase their exposure to growing markets and locations.”

For the industry, now is the time to position for the rebound.

A rare piece of good news for house builders emerged in the latest Halifax index

 

Hodgkinson Builders have new Homes for sale in Ashbourne Derbyshire 

A rare piece of good news for house builders emerged in the latest Halifax index showing house prices rose fractionally in March (up by 0.8% compared to February) helped by an upturn in transactions and the first increase in mortgage approvals for six months.

Whilst the Halifax still expects an overall slowing in the housing market this year, the resilience reflected in the March figures provides some reassurance for private housing construction activity over 2023.

In particular, the large private volume house builders will find it easier to maintain sales – and hence construction activity – in the absence of the marked falls in house prices and poor market sentiment which were widespread after interest rates rose at the end of last year.

Improving customer demand

Indeed, the mood amongst the larger quoted volume house builders has brightened so far this year, helped partly by more sales of affordable units.

Bellway recently noted that it had seen customer demand improve since January. If its current reservation rates are sustained through the Spring, the company’s build programme is on track to deliver 11,000 homes in its current financial year (ending in July). This is only around 200 below the 11,198 which it built in the previous year.

Bellway has seen weaker private demand partly offset by a move to accelerate the construction of social homes. Although its rate of private reservations in the first half (ending in January) fell to 138 per week from 202 per week a year earlier, the firm’s level of construction completions in the period was virtually unchanged at 5,695 homes.

And whilst Bellway is spending less on new land, the company says it is well-placed to deliver a modest increase in the number of construction sites which it builds on by this summer.

After falling sharply at the end of last year, sales rates at fellow volume house builder Persimmon have also improved in the first eight weeks of this year. Whilst its legal completions are set to be down sharply this year, the company is still planning a significant construction programme involving some 8,000-9,000 new homes during 2023.

In another encouraging sign, Persimmon expects to build on an average of around 259 housebuilding sites across the country this year – a similar level to 2022 – and to drive outlet growth from 2024 onwards.

New developments

Glenigan data provides numerous examples of significant sites where volume house builders are planning to launch new developments in the months ahead and which offer new work opportunities for contractors and suppliers.

£750M LOST FOR TRAINING - THE TRAINING LEVY DO YOU REMEMBER THAT ?

 

£750M LOST FOR TRAINING COULD HAVE BEEN

USED FOR APPRENTERSHIPS INSTEAD THE SURPLUS MONEY WENT TO THE TAX MAN #BuilderBetterBritain @THESUN EXCLUSIVE by KATE FERGUSON a Report in THE SUN THE Treasury pocketed £750million from the apprenticeship levy last year rather than spend it on training.

Experts said the figures show the system needs reform to help more businesses take on trainees.

Under a "use it or lose it" approach, firms have to pay the levy and any unspent cash goes to Government coffers.

Some £3.2billion was raised in the year ending April

2022 but just £2.45billion was spent.

Over the past five years, Government has snaffled £4.4billion from the fund, the Policy Exchange think-tank said. The numbers were unearthed in parliamentary questions tabled by its director Lord Dean Godson.

Our Builder Better Britain campaign calls for more government training help.

Sun

No10 said: "Underspends are re-allocated to fund demand.

YOUNG brickies are laying the building blocks for their future thanks to brilliant apprenticeships -The Article from the Sun in full !

YOUNG brickies are laying the building blocks for their future thanks to brilliant apprenticeships - and can earn up to £2,500 a WEEK.

But despite the huge paypackets on offer in the trade, it is currently facing a chronic shortage of workers.

The Sun on Sunday’s Builder Better Britain campaign has been launched to highlight how the industry can give youngsters like Jeorgie Percer and Lucas Robinson a vital, well-paid career.

Apprentice Lucas, 22, says he is doing his “dream job” after ignoring the school teachers who told him he must go to university.

The 22-year-old landed a place to study business at Nottingham Trent Uni but at the last minute decided to become a bricklayer.

Lucas, from Nottingham, told The Sun on Sunday: “I’d encourage anybody to become a bricklayer. You can show off your skills, earn good money, keep fit, be in the fresh air and have a laugh. What’s not to love?

“I have been doing it for two years and can already lay 300 to 400 bricks a day which, once I qualify in June, will be worth £200 a day.

“But throughout school I was discouraged from doing it by the teachers, even though there was a course there to do it. Therefore I didn’t even see it as an option for years and just focused on getting the grades and going to uni.”

Lucas, who is set to earn £1,000 a week when he qualifies in June, added: “At the last minute though I got cold feet.  I realised it wasn’t for me. My dad is a bricklayer, he has mates in the business so he helped me get an apprenticeship —  and thank God he did.

“University might be right for some people but I’m pleased I changed my mind. I live in my own place, work outside and love everything about bricklaying.

“On site we really are like one big massive family who laugh all day together. We are in the open air enjoying life. And I know I have a career for the future because we need bricklayers in this country.”

Jeorgia Percer is another brickie who loves her job and fought to get to where she is today despite being discouraged from the trade.

She said: “In the final year of school we were able to go to college a day a week to do either brick-laying, farming or hairdressing.  I was told  I was doing hairdressing.

“As a kid you don’t know what you want to do so someone should have sat me down and discussed the options available. One day I said to my dad, as a joke,  I’d like to be a brickie.  He rang a college and got me an apprenticeship.”

Now Jeorgia, 22, from Monmouth, Gwent, and dad Mervyn work together. The self-employed qualified brickie loves working outdoors,   being her own boss and the workout that comes with her career.

She said: “On my college course there was only one other woman and I’ve only met two others on the job. But it is ace work.

“If I really grafted I could make £2,500 a week.  You are problem-solving, using your brain, using  muscles and having fun. I love being a brickie and  would en-courage young girls to join up too.”

There are only 70,000 skilled bricklayers working in Britain today, despite the Government’s plan to build 300,000 new homes a year.

The lack of young recruits and apprentices means the Government has now said  brickies, carpenters, plasterers, tilers and roofers are on the shortage occupation list.

Skills Minister Robert Halfon says £2.7billion is available to encourage businesses to offer more apprenticeships. 

Yet things could be better. Bricklayer boss Ian Hodgkinson says the Government should simplify  apprenticeship levies in order to make it easier for firms such as his to recruit.

Ian, 59, said: “I am proud to say that about a quarter of my team,  both men and women,  started as apprentices with me. But we pay the price for having app-rentices.”

The Apprenticeship Levy, introduced five years ago,  is a tax  on UK employers to fund apprenticeship training. Employers with an annual pay bill of more than £3million must pay it. There is also a CITB Levy, which is used to support construction employers to make sure industry has the skilled workforce it needs.

Ian, who runs Hodgkinson Builders in Derby, says: “The feedback I get from others in the industry is that the levies are just too complicated.

“We read that billions of Apprenticeship Levy funds are returned to the Government, and it’s not surprising.

“I pay the CITB Levy, which ends up being like a secondary tax. It’s complicated and difficult to ad-minister, particularly for smaller companies,  and it is these smaller companies that require the most help with recruitment and apprentices.

“Reform and help in these areas would be most welcome. We need to make it easy for youngsters to get apprenticeships and for us to take them on.” He added: “The Government goes on about building 300,000 houses a year to keep up with demand but with fewer than 70,000 bricklayers in this country each one has got to build four houses each year. It is just not going to happen.

“I am pleased the Government has put bricklaying on the shortage occupation list because foreign workers will come back into the country and help with the situation  we’ve got.”

Ian is so passionate about his trade that staff from his house-building and property developer company  are starring in  new BBC Three series Brickies, showing the banter, fallouts and friendships while building houses. He added: “Some of the junior staff that work for me can earn £1,000 a week. The more senior £2,500 a week.

“But since the Nineties we have had people like Tony Blair saying that the route to everything is by going to university, so you were made to believe that if you hadn’t gone to university you’d already failed. That is not the case at all, it’s  rubbish.

“A building site is a fantastic place to work but you won’t catch many teachers encouraging students to go into bricklaying instead of spending three years at university. Obviously university is right for a lot of people, and we need youngsters going to uni, but they need to be told that there are other avenues too. And that is where apprenticeships come in.”

In a 2018 YouGov survey statistics showed that just 11 per cent of 15 to 18-year-olds are likely to be encouraged towards an apprenticeship rather than further education at a uni. And 73 per cent of students claimed  the most likely recommendation made to them by their school or college would be to take a university route.

Yet those who do go on apprenticeship schemes have a good chance of a reliable future. One study found that  85 per cent of apprentices stay in employment, and 64 per cent of these continue working with the same employer.

In Leeds,  bricklayer Stuart Nicklin has struggled to recruit apprentices. One job advert led to just three applicants.

Stuart, 52, said: “Instead of going to uni and coming out with debt they could be laying bricks, cutting wood, learning a craft on the job and earning good money. 

“The academic pipeline teachers are trying to push the youth of today down is not for every child.

“I understand the Government recruiting from abroad but I have found there’s often a language barrier and we don’t know what type of training they have. Then you have the fear that homes  that we desperately need built  are not being built as well as they were.”